Five reasons Nigeria’s poll delay is fishy

Prof Attahiru Jega

There was a whiff of something rotten in my kitchen on Saturday – and it wasn’t the cooking. No, it was emanating from the press conference I was watching live on my smartphone, in which Nigeria’s national electoral commissioner announced that polling, scheduled for February 14, was to be postponed by another six weeks.

So now, tens of millions of Nigerian voters will have to wait until March 28 to choose between an increasingly embattled incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan (Peoples Democratic Party) and his challenger Muhammadu Buhari (opposition All Progressives Congress). Governorship races (including my friend and former CGD visiting fellow Nuhu Ribadu running as the PDP candidate in Adamawa State) must now wait until April 11.

Karen Attiah in the Washington Post also noticed the smell. The official reason for the postponement is that the military needs six weeks to launch a new offensive against Boko Haram and cannot guarantee election safety at the same time. This is potentially plausible. But here are five reasons why I’m sceptical.

1. What’s really going to change militarily in six weeks? There is close to zero chance that after years of losing ground, the Nigerian military can launch a successful counterinsurgency in the next few weeks and defeat Boko Haram. Even with massive external assistance (which Nigeria had been avoiding rather than encouraging), this is highly unlikely. So, what happens in late March when Boko Haram is still a major threat?
2. Why the last-minute change? Any election in Nigeria is a security risk. The 2011 elections went pretty well and still some 800 people died. Even if the military is correct that all of their capacity is required in the North-East and thus can’t be deployed to provide poll security in the rest of the country, this was also known many months ago. The timing, so close to a tight election, is certainly suspicious.
3. Those with the most to lose still want to move ahead. Buhari’s base is the north and encompasses areas terrorised by Boko Haram. He would lose the most votes if turnout were suppressed by militant disruption (or fear of it). So, logically, it ought to be Buhari who is calling for a postponement to allow a counteroffensive. Yet, the opposite is true: Buhari wants the elections to go ahead on time. He is now wisely calling for calm, but his position suggests something is amiss.
4. Imperfect elections are often better than none. Elections have been conducted under extremely difficult circumstances in lots of countries and still come off pretty well. A good analogy here may be Mali’s decision to proceed with national elections in July 2013 despite widespread concerns about insecurity in the north. It wasn’t perfect, but the election helped move the country forward.
5. Return of a politicised military? Nigeria has a long history of military coups (1966, 1975, 1983, 1985, 1993), an era everyone hoped ended with democratic elections in 1999. But are we confident the military’s rationale for postponement was entirely security-related? Any suggestion that the Independent National Electoral Commission might have been pressured by military chiefs for political reasons is worrying.

The postponement matters to the tens of millions of Nigerians who were preparing to choose their leaders in a highly-competitive election. That process is now thrown into deep uncertainty, just at a time when citizen confidence in the election has plummeted.

It matters for the region too. As the continent’s biggest country and largest economy, Nigeria is both the engine and the emblem of Africa’s rise. Its leaders should be champions for inclusive democratic development not voting shenanigans and backroom dealing.

And it matters for the West: America’s relations with Africa rely heavily on Nigeria’s role as a crucial economic and security partner. This explains why the United States Secretary of State, John Kerry, flew to Lagos last month to urge a credible election and then why he issued an immediate statement expressing deep disappointment in the poll delay. The Kerry statement included a warning that “political interference… is unacceptable,” hinting that the US government isn’t quite convinced by the rationale for postponement either.

If the polls come off as planned on March 28 and April 11 and they go well enough, then this six-week delay will be forgotten. But if this is the beginning of a new period of political instability for Nigeria and an erosion in its democracy, then we will all come to regret the events of the past few days.

Soldiers lay siege to Tinubu’s home

Asiwaju Bola Tinubu

A former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, says soldiers have placed him under surveillance for the past three days.

Tinubu,   in a statement on Tuesday by his Media Office, claimed that the soldiers numbering 30 were first noticed in a truck close to his Ikoyi, Lagos residence around 11pm on Sunday.

A soldier, Capt. Sagir Kooli, who exposed the alleged rigging of the June 2014 Ekiti State governorship election,   had in a video which went viral last week said   that Tinubu’s telephone was bugged by the Department of State Services.

The former governor said in the statement that the soldiers were initially stationed about 500 metres from the gate of his house   before they moved closer.

Tinubu   explained   that on Monday night , the soldiers returned   in two vans and stayed throughout the night.

He claimed that some of them alighted from the vans and walked back and forth in front of the house.

The APC leader,who   alleged that   the vans   were stationed on both sides of the house on Tuesday morning,   vowed not to be intimidated by the government.

He said, “I remain resolute in my advocacy and support for the rule of law. President Goodluck Jonathan’s government has through the service chiefs staged a coup against Nigerians and the 1999 Constitution and now wants to silence his critics. I will not be muzzled through the barrel of the gun.

“The guns and bullets they should use to defeat Boko Haram are now being turned against the opposition and innocent Nigerians.”

Tinubu advised Jonathan not to take Nigeria back to the days that followed the annulment of the June 12, 1993 election and   urged the Yoruba to hold Jonathan responsible should anything happen to him.

He said, “As the scaremongering by the army continues, Nigerians must come to the realisation that the military has abandoned its statutory role and have now being dragged into partisan politics.

“Nigerians and the South-West should hold the Jonathan-led military responsible if any harm or danger comes to Tinubu and his family. The case of the Unknown soldier is too recent in our memory.”

In a separate statement, the Lagos State chapter of the APC described the development as unfortunate and an evidence that Jonathan was abusing the military.

The statement by the state Publicity Secretary of the party,   Joe Igbokwe,   noted that soldiers were used in harassing and arresting leaders of the APC in Ekiti State during the governorship elections.

It described the abuse of soldiers as ‘‘an act of desperation being perpetuated by a dying regime.’’

The party said while Chad and Niger Republic were deploying soldiers to fight Boko Haram, the Federal Government was using soldiers to intimidate the opposition.

The statement read in part, “We see the attempt to intimidate and harass Tinubu as one of the desperate efforts by a dying regime to arrest the forces of history and warn that the PDP and the Jonathan presidency are struggling in vain for nothing will save them from being thrown to the dumpsite of history.

“A nation that is being assailed with the sordid details of the misuse of the army to rig elections for the PDP in Ekiti is today being treated with the scenario of using the same army to intimidate opposition forces so as to procure another extension for a failed regime that ranks not only as the most corrupt but the most clueless and incompetent in the history of the country.

“It is a pity that when poor countries like Niger and Chad are sending troops to fight insurgents in Nigeria, our own troops are being deployed to fight the opposition and intimidate the nation for the sole purpose of forcing through the dead ambition for continuation by a failed and bankrupt regime.”

However, the Deputy Director of Information, Nigerian Army 81 Division, Col. Mustapha Anka, denied that   soldiers were deployed to monitor Tinubu.

Don’t play politics with insecurity, EU tells FG

The European Union Election Observation Mission has however cautioned the Federal Government against playing politics with insecurity in the country.

The mission which expressed concern over the postponement of the general elections,     challenged the   security agencies to support the Independent National Electoral Commission in the conduct of the general elections on March 28 and April 11.

The EUEOM Chief Observer, Santiago Fisas, in a statement in Abuja on Tuesday, acknowledged the different views by stakeholders on the postponement of the   elections.

He said, “We are seriously concerned at this delay and the reason given. Security is critical but must not be political. People have to be able to vote, elections have to be held so that government is accountable. We look to the security agencies to give full support to INEC and all the people of Nigeria in the holding of polls on   March 28 and   April 11.”

While commending the peaceful reactions by stakeholders to the polls’ postponement, Fisas said that the EU would continue to monitor the electoral process in Nigeria.

He encouraged all the political parties, their candidates and other stakeholders to consider the extra time as an opportunity to prepare better for the elections.

“The EU EOM commends the peaceful reaction so far to the postponement and will continue observing the electoral process. We encourage all political parties, candidates, supporters and other stakeholders to consider the extra time as an opportunity to further prepare for the election days. More voters can collect their Permanent Voter Cards, candidates can elaborate on their proposed policies,” the   Chief Observer said.

Fisas emphasised that for citizens to have confidence in the electoral process, the elections should not be further delayed.

“We will be here in different parts of the country observing the next crucial weeks in the run-up to the election and beyond,” he promised.

UN   seeks restraint from politicians

The United Nations also   advised politicians to continue to exercise restraint and keep the electoral process clean ahead of the polls.

Its Secretary-General, Ban Ki-Moon, said the global body was happy that the delay in the conduct of the elections had been accepted by the stakeholders.

Ban’s Special Representative,   Mohammed Ibn Chambas, disclosed this to State House correspondents shortly after a closed-door meeting he had with President Goodluck Jonathan in Abuja on Tuesday.

“In short, the message is that we appreciate the pure manner in which the electoral process is proceeding, the Secretary-General commends the President and other political leaders to continue on that parth,” he added.

Chambas,   a former President of the Economic Community of West African States Commission, said his visit was a follow-up to telephone conversations the UN boss had with the President and the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Muhammadu Buhari, last week.

He added that the UN believed that the delay   would provide an opportunity for   more Nigerians to collect their PVCs .

The Special Representative said, “The Secretary-General told me to commend Mr. President and other leaders of the political parties and Nigerians as a whole for the maturity that has been demonstrated so far in this whole preparation towards the general elections that are now scheduled for later in March.

“We saw first of all the primaries; there were a lot of speculations about how they will go and they transpired in a very calm and peaceful manner.

“The campaigns started, and again Nigerians have demonstrated a lot of maturity in the general manner in which the campaigns have taken place.

“Naturally in periods such as this, there will be heightened tension, heightened rhetoric, but on the whole, we have very little violence associated with this process.

“And this is the same also with the postponement where there were a lot of speculations about what will happen but so far this process has been proceeding in a calm, peaceful and credible manner.

“This is the wish certainly of the UN and also many friends of Nigeria. It is our expectations that all will continue to exercise retraint and keep this process clean. And that at the end of the day Nigerians will all accept the outcome of the vote of the people.”

I won’t go on terminal leave – Jega

INEC Chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega

The Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Prof. Attahiru Jega, has said he does not have any plan to embark on terminal leave.

This was contrary to unsubstantiated report that Jega would proceed on a forced terminal leave on March 1.

But Jega’s Chief Press Secretary, Mr. Kayode Idowu, denied this saying his boss was busy preparing for the conduct of the elections.

He said, “Jega is busy preparing for the elections and you are asking about terminal leave. Does anyone planning to conduct elections go on terminal leave? There is nothing like that.”

Idowu had in an interview on a TV programme monitored in Lagos, on Tuesday, said Jega’s appointment was not guided by civil service rules and would serve until the end of his tenure on June 30.

He said the postponement of the elections would make INEC better prepared for the elections scheduled for March 28 and April 11.

Idowu also denied the report that Jega had resigned his appointment due to pressure from the Presidency.

Idowu said, “No, that’s (resignation) is not true, he has not resigned. He didn’t resign. It is a mere rumour.”

Similarly, the minority leader of the House of Representatives, Mr. Femi Gbajabiamila, said Jega could not be asked to go on a terminal leave because he was not a civil servant.

He said, “I do not consider the Chairman of INEC as a civil servant subject to civil service rules the same way I, as a member of the House of Representatives, is not a civil servant. There is a difference between a civil servant and a public servant or officer. Jega falls under the latter.”

However, it was learnt that by norm, political appointees had at several times in the past been ordered to go on terminal leave even though they were not civil servants.

The provisions of Public Service Rules 100238 states that officers are required to give three months notice of their retirement from service terminating on the effective date of their retirement. This means Jega might be forced to proceed on terminal leave before the elections.

For instance, the tenure of Jega’s predecessor, Prof Maurice Iwu, was due to expire on June 13, 2010 but on April 28, 2010, President Goodluck Jonathan, ordered Iwu to proceed on terminal leave.

Obasanjo endorses Buhari, warns against coup

 Former President Olusegun Obasanjo

After months of berating the administration of President Goodluck Jonathan, former President Olusegun Obasanjo has declared his support for the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.).

Obasanjo, who is a member of the Peoples Democratic Party, made his opinion known during an interview with the Financial Times at the launch of his controversial autobiography titled, ‘My Watch’, in Nairobi, Kenya.

Obasanjo said Buhari, who ruled Nigeria between December 1983 and August 1985, was aware of the challenges of Nigeria today and was qualified to rule the country.

He said, “The circumstances he (Buhari) will be working under if he wins the elections are different from the one he worked under before, where he was both the executive and the legislature – he knows that. He is smart enough. He is educated enough. He’s experienced enough. Why shouldn’t I support him?”

Obasanjo said he was confident that Buhari would be able to effectively tackle corruption and insecurity.

The former President said Buhari would restore the morale of the military which, he said, was needed in the fight against terrorism.

He said President Goodluck Jonathan betrayed the armed forces by allowing corruption to undermine their operations.

He said, “It is a question of leadership – political and military. I think you need to ask Jonathan how he let the army go to this extent. Many things went wrong: recruitment went wrong; training went wrong; morale went down; motivation was not there; corruption was deeply ingrained; andwelfare was bad.”

Obasanjo added that he was saddened by the rate at which the nation’s resources were dwindling, adding that when he left office, Nigeria had $45bn in its reserve but the resources had been depleted by more than half despite the increase in oil prices.

Reacting to the postponement of the elections by the Independent National Electoral Commission for security reasons and a better distribution of Permanent Voter Cards, Obasanjo said he hoped the Federal Government was being truthful.

He urged Jonathan to put the interest of the nation ahead of his own ambition.

He said warned that manipulating the electoral process could lead to a coup d’etat, adding that the May 29 handover date remained sacrosanct.

“I sincerely hope that the President is not going for broke and saying ‘look dammit, it’s either I have it or nobody has it’. I hope that we will not have a coup. I hope we can avoid it,” he said.